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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 38

New York Giants 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(5:38) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Shepard (34-C.LeBlanc).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model