4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 61

New York Giants 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(8:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end to NYG 39 for no gain (34-C.LeBlanc).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.73 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model