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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 83

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to NYG 37, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-G.Tate to NYG 37 for no gain (22-S.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.23 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 83, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 41, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP