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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to NYG 24 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams; 44-M.Golden).

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.04 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model