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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 90

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to PHI 49, Center-69-C.Holba. 84-G.Ward to PHI 46 for -3 yards (18-D.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.59 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 90, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP