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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 13

New York Giants 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 12-C.Latimer to PHI 4 for 9 yards (23-R.McLeod, 37-M.Epps). PHI-74-D.Hall was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +3.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.72 EP