Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 79

New York Giants 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

(11:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to PHI 34, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model