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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 19

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model