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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 84

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:10) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NYG 41, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.03 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model