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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 50

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to PHI 18, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model