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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 47

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to PHI 10, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model