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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2016-12-04 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

LA
18.8%
NE
81.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.252 vs Jared Goff (LA) -0.243 EPA/dropback
  • LA offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 19
–
NE 30
Projected margin: NE by 11 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LA

Tavon Austin WR Doubtful Chest
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Concussion
Tim Barnes C Questionable Foot
Andrew Donnal T Questionable Hip
Rodger Saffold T Questionable Hand

NE

Rob Gronkowski TE Out Back
Jordan Richards S Out Knee
Woodrow Hamilton DT Questionable Illness
Matt Slater WR Questionable Foot
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
Tom Brady QB Questionable Knee
Nate Ebner S Questionable Concussion
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Shin
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Back
Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Jaw

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 10
–
NE 26

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:46 TD NE (10:46) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 13:13 TD NE (13:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-C.Hogan for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:15 FG NE (:15) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. LA 0 – NE 17
  • Q3 07:56 FG LA (7:56) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – NE 17
  • Q3 05:13 FG NE (5:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. LA 3 – NE 20
  • Q3 03:12 FG NE (3:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. LA 3 – NE 23
  • Q4 10:53 FG NE (10:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. LA 3 – NE 26
  • Q4 01:20 TD LA (1:20) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-K.Britt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – NE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 40%

    (10:46) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:46) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NE 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:28) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to LA 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-P.Cooper to LA 28 for 4 yards (38-B.Bolden).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to NE 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 24-Cy.Jones MUFFS catch, recovered by NE-23-P.Chung at NE 19. 23-P.Chung to NE 19 for no gain (34-C.Reynolds).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:33) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to LA 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King. Penalty on LA-15-B.Marquez, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to NE 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-D.Amendola to NE 22 for 8 yards (58-C.Littleton).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 40%

    (6:28) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to LA 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:39) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NE 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-D.Amendola to NE 42 for -1 yards (34-C.Reynolds).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 64%

    (2:48) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right end to LA 28 for 6 yards (22-T.Johnson).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (:15) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to NE 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-D.Amendola to NE 16 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:56) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to LA 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-P.Cooper to LA 45 for 6 yards (49-J.Cardona).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 81%

    (7:56) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%

    (5:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 79%

    (3:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to NE 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-D.Amendola to NE 16 for -1 yards (13-M.Thomas). NE-80-D.Amendola was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 81%

    (10:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 17 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 76 yards to NE 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 20 for 11 yards (13-M.Thomas). PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 10.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:17) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to LA 32, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-P.Cooper to LA 31 for -1 yards (43-N.Ebner; 36-B.King).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NE 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:43) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to LA 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-P.Cooper to LA 34 for -1 yards (43-N.Ebner; 31-J.Jones).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 18-K.Britt to NE 1 for 66 yards (30-D.Harmon).