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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 43

New England Patriots 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to LA 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP