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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NE 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model