Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to NE 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-D.Amendola to NE 16 for -1 yards (13-M.Thomas). NE-80-D.Amendola was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model