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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NE 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.57 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model