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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to NE 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-D.Amendola to NE 22 for 8 yards (58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model