Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 75

New England Patriots 26 – Los Angeles Rams 3

(3:43) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to LA 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-P.Cooper to LA 34 for -1 yards (43-N.Ebner; 31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.12 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model