Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 76 yards to NE 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 20 for 11 yards (13-M.Thomas). PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 10.

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.42 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model