Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New England Patriots 26

(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 18-K.Britt to NE 1 for 66 yards (30-D.Harmon).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.57 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP