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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 78

New England Patriots 26 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to LA 32, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-P.Cooper to LA 31 for -1 yards (43-N.Ebner; 36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 35, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model