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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to NE 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 24-Cy.Jones MUFFS catch, recovered by NE-23-P.Chung at NE 19. 23-P.Chung to NE 19 for no gain (34-C.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.56 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP