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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 86

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NE 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-D.Amendola to NE 42 for -1 yards (34-C.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.49 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 86, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 44, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model