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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 43

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.40 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model