4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 26

New England Patriots 23 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model