4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2016-12-04 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

DEN
47.9%
JAX
52.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Blake Bortles (JAX): -0.082 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: -0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
JAX 21
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DEN

Andy Janovich RB Out Ankle
Casey Kreiter LS Out Calf
Trevor Siemian QB Out Foot
Bennie Fowler WR Out Knee

JAX

Rashad Greene WR Out Achilles
Allen Hurns WR Out Hamstring
Chris Ivory RB Out Hamstring
Jared Odrick DE Out Shoulder
Julius Thomas TE Doubtful Back
Yannick Ngakoue DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 20
–
JAX 10

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:06 FG JAX (11:06) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. DEN 0 – JAX 3
  • Q2 07:01 TD DEN (7:01) 23-D.Booker up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:05 FG DEN (:05) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 10 – JAX 3
  • Q3 07:45 TD DEN (7:45) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle intended for 15-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 29-B.Roby at DEN 49. 29-B.Roby for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – JAX 3
  • Q4 14:10 TD JAX (14:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – JAX 9
  • Q4 00:33 FG DEN (:33) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 20 – JAX 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to JAX 16, Center-45-T.Gafford. 81-B.Walters to JAX 20 for 4 yards (31-J.Simmons).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:53) 3-B.Nortman punts 65 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Raymond to DEN 11 for no gain (46-C.Tinker; 52-H.Pullard).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-45-T.Gafford, Touchback.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:43) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to DEN 21, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Raymond to DEN 20 for -1 yards (17-A.Benn).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (4:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to JAX 14, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 34%

    (:05) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to JAX 36, Center-45-T.Gafford. 81-B.Walters to JAX 41 for 5 yards (31-J.Simmons).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 75%

    (11:06) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 36%

    (3:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to JAX 3, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster. DEN-52-C.Nelson was injured during the play.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:00) 3-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 42 for 19 yards (48-A.Ellis). PENALTY on JAX-48-A.Ellis, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:18) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to DEN 31, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Raymond to JAX 47 for 22 yards (30-C.Grant).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 47%

    (12:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to JAX 5, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:55) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to JAX 30, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 86%

    (14:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-T.Gafford. 81-B.Walters to JAX 27 for no gain (14-C.Latimer).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 52%

    (8:18) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 15-A.Robinson (21-A.Talib). PENALTY on JAX-15-A.Robinson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 38.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 47%

    (6:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-45-T.Gafford, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:21) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to JAX 29, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:52) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to JAX 26, Center-45-T.Gafford. 81-B.Walters to JAX 34 for 8 yards (57-D.Watson).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 85%

    (:33) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.