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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 3-B.Nortman punts 65 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Raymond to DEN 11 for no gain (46-C.Tinker; 52-H.Pullard).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.98 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model