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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 73

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to JAX 26, Center-45-T.Gafford. 81-B.Walters to JAX 34 for 8 yards (57-D.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.05 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model