Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Denver Broncos 17

(6:55) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model