4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.22 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model