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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 22

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(14:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.88 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP