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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 40

Denver Broncos 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to JAX 5, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.61 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP