4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to DEN 21, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Raymond to DEN 20 for -1 yards (17-A.Benn).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP