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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 74

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to JAX 29, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.92 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP