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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 86

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to JAX 36, Center-45-T.Gafford. 81-B.Walters to JAX 41 for 5 yards (31-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.43 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 86, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model