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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(8:18) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 15-A.Robinson (21-A.Talib). PENALTY on JAX-15-A.Robinson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 38.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.60 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model