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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 23

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +1.47 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model