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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:05) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.72 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model