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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 44

Denver Broncos 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to JAX 3, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster. DEN-52-C.Nelson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP