Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 68

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(12:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-T.Gafford. 81-B.Walters to JAX 27 for no gain (14-C.Latimer).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model