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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 13:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌨 Snow Spread 10.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

SEA
30.3%
KC
69.7%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.203 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.281 vs Geno Smith (SEA) +0.122 EPA/dropback
  • SEA offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • SEA on 3 more days rest than KC

Predicted Final Score

SEA 20
–
KC 28
Projected margin: KC by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

SEA

Tyler Lockett WR Out Hand
Ryan Neal S Out Knee
Al Woods DT Out Achilles
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Wrist
Kenneth Walker RB Questionable Ankle
DeeJay Dallas RB Questionable Ankle
Noah Fant TE Questionable Knee

KC

Joe Fortson TE Out Elbow
Khalen Saunders DT Doubtful Illness
Deon Bush S Questionable Illness
Michael Danna DE Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 10
–
KC 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:46 TD KC (6:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 19-K.Toney for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 09:02 TD KC (9:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 02:44 FG KC (2:44) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. SEA 0 – KC 17
  • Q2 00:01 FG SEA (:01) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – KC 17
  • Q4 04:50 TD KC (4:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – KC 23
  • Q4 02:31 TD SEA (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – KC 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (14:23) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to SEA 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (12:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to KC 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Toney to KC 37 for 9 yards (44-N.Bellore).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 50%

    (4:15) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 18-L.Treadwell (56-G.Karlaftis).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 47%

    (2:41) 5-T.Townsend punts 22 yards to SEA 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to KC 30, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-19-P.Hart.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (:06) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to SEA 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 31-D.Dallas pushed ob at SEA 16 for 6 yards (83-N.Gray).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 20 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to KC 38, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Toney to KC 47 for 9 yards (57-C.Barton).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to KC 18, Center-46-C.Tinker. 29-C.Lammons to KC 18 for no gain. PENALTY on SEA-83-D.Young, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 18.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 79%

    (2:44) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (:01) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to KC 33, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:09) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to SEA 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 47%

    (10:02) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith up the middle to KC 40 for 2 yards (51-M.Danna).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 68%

    (7:30) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson to KC 34 for no gain (6-B.Cook). Penalty on SEA-19-P.Hart, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:39) 5-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to SEA 26, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 18-L.Treadwell to KC 22 for 7 yards (21-T.McDuffie).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to SEA 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 31-D.Dallas pushed ob at SEA 45 for 6 yards (54-L.Chenal).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles right end ran ob at SEA 36 for 5 yards (22-J.Thornhill).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (2:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 18-L.Treadwell to KC 6 for 17 yards (23-J.Williams).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 63%

    (1:12) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 84-Ju.Watson (56-J.Brooks).