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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 5-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to SEA 26, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.16 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model