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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to KC 33, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model