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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:15) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 18-L.Treadwell (56-G.Karlaftis).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.10 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model