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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson to KC 34 for no gain (6-B.Cook). Penalty on SEA-19-P.Hart, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.81 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model