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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 23

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 18-L.Treadwell to KC 6 for 17 yards (23-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP