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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 84-Ju.Watson (56-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +0.98 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP