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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(:06) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to SEA 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 31-D.Dallas pushed ob at SEA 16 for 6 yards (83-N.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model