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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 3

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(:01) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +3.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.95 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 3, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.96 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP