Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to KC 18, Center-46-C.Tinker. 29-C.Lammons to KC 18 for no gain. PENALTY on SEA-83-D.Young, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.64 EP
60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model